The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine today updated its numbers and again reduced the number of projected deaths and number of days before the country flattens the curve.
The University of Washington now predicts the United States will peak April 12 instead of the previously projected April 15.
The institute also lowered its projected number of deaths nationally from 81,766 to 60,415.
The institute’s first coronavirus model based on data from China predicted that the United States would suffer 100,000 to 250,000 deaths. That model was based on the assumption that only 50% of Americans would comply with the social distancing recommendation. It has now been reported that up to 90% of Americans have practiced social distancing, a practice that is saving hundreds of thousands of lives.
The institute’s numbers for California have also improved. The institute now predicts the number of deaths in California at 1,611 down from 1,783. California was originally projected to peak April 26, and that has been updated to happen April 14 or 15.
California’s ability to stay ahead of the surge in patients has been attributed to Governor Gavin Newsom’s calling for a stay at home order on March 19. Though some Central Valley politicians and residents have objected to what they considered as “Way Overboard,” the order has been attributed to saving thousands of lives.
Men and Blacks more at risk of dying
As scientists begin to analyze the numbers coming out of New York and other states it is evident that men and Blacks are more likely to die from coronavirus.
According to the New York Times, “In its inexorable spread across New York City, the coronavirus is exacting a greater toll on men than women. Not only are men infected in greater numbers, new data show, but they are also dying at nearly twice the rate of women.”
The reasons for the disparity thus far are purely speculative as scientists have just started looking at the data. One leading hypothesis is that women have a more robust immune system than men.
The Times continued, “To date, there have been nearly 43 Covid-19 deaths for every 100,000 men in the city, compared with 23 such deaths for every 100,000 women, according to figures reported by the city’s health department. And men are being hospitalized with severe disease at higher rates… ‘More than two-thirds of the intubated patients are men,’ said Dr. Joseph Lowy, a palliative care and hospice doctor at N.Y.U. Langone Health, referring to patients on ventilators.”’
“I know of no other disease that has that type of predilection for one gender over another,” excluding diseases of the reproductive system,” he added.
According to the Washington Post, coronavirus appears to be killing African Americans in disproportionately high numbers. In Milwaukee County, African Americans account for around 70% of the dead but make up just 26% of the population.
This pattern has been repeated throughout the country in places such as Detroit and Chicago.
New data from the Centers for Disease Control shows children make a very small proportion of coronavirus cases and are much less likely to become ill, reports the New York Times.
The good news is that today White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said that the outbreak is starting to slow in places across the U.S. and especially in states such as Washington and California, where social distancing started, and where measures were put in place early.