I’m writing on the eve of the Iowa caucus, the results of which will be old news by the time you read this. But, precisely because I want to write about the Iowa results, some waiting is entailed–and it gives me the perfect opportunity to make a few predictions.
OK–this is not, as my wife calls it, rocket “scientry.” But here goes:
On the Republican side, it seems to me that Donald Trump, making a verb of his surname, will triumph comfortably first over Ted Cruz and, more easily, over a third-place Marco Rubio. Even though Trump poses an existential threat to Republican presidential aspirations this year–in that he has, in particular, alienated the Hispanic vote (Remember how Mitt Romney faired in the last election, after alienating the Black vote?) –I expect his polling leads to hold, translating to a solid victory.
The Democratic caucus will be narrowly taken by Hillary Clinton, but only because voters will at the last minute reflect on her vast experience–after which the “Feel the Bern” fire willbecome an ember everywhere else but in New England and, possibly, California.
Shortly after Iowa–and on both sides–it seems to me that all of the lower echelon candidates will begin to peel away. Except Jeb Bush. What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate. He’ll bungle along, opportunistically, hoping to rise while others fall. The question coming away from Iowa will be how deep into the process he can carry such a stratagem. He has raised far too much establishment money to just quit now, even if Iowa proves to be an unmitigated catastrophe.
Here’s a full stop–and a solemn promise to leave the above intact. The morrow will see how much of a monkey I am made.
OK–someone hand me a banana.
On the Democratic side, the results–far from old news–may not be known for weeks. When I wrote “narrowly taken by Hillary Clinton,” I did not mean re-count narrowly.
And I entirely forgot about the evangelical vote. It’s a good thing I’m not charged with writing “Political Fix.” While I pegged Rubio accurately at third place, I did not foresee Cruz winning over Trump. I feel bad about this–not because I was wrong, but because either of them are seriously in the running. I’d sooner vote for a monkey.
Trump is a cartoon and Cruz is the reincarnation–at least physically–of Joe McCarthy.
But now that the votes are in, the only thing I think I know is that the establishment money will flow to Rubio.
I also don’t think, after a strong–if second place–finish, that the GOP will further attempt to undermine Trump. They’ll just let him ride.
As will the Democrats with Sanders. Clearly, the fact that he is a self-avowed socialist will matter little as we venture ever deeper into the process. It didn’t seem to matter in Iowa, of all places–and I don’t think it will hurt him if he makes it to November.
The People, once again, want a change. Why else would the likes of Sanders and Trump be so popular?
But the good thing is that neither is beholden to any hidden interests.